参考文献

Asness, Cliff. (So) What If You Miss the Market’s N Best Days? AQR Capital Management; AQR Capital Management, 2025. https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/So-What-If-You-Miss-the-Markets-N-Best-Days.

Brock, William, Josef Lakonishok, and Blake LeBARON. “Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns.” The Journal of Finance 47, no. 5 (1992): 1731–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04681.x.

Buffett, Warren E. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2013 Annual Report: Shareholder Letter. Shareholder Letter. Berkshire Hathaway Inc., 2014. https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2013ltr.pdf.

Buffett, Warren E. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2016 Annual Report: Shareholder Letter. Shareholder Letter. Berkshire Hathaway Inc., 2017. https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2016ltr.pdf.

Cheol‐Ho Park, and Scott H. Irwin. “What Do We Know about the Profitability of Technical Analysis?” Journal of Economic Surveys 21, no. 4 (2007): 786–826. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2007.00519.x.

Dimson, Elroy, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton. “American Exceptionalism: The Long-Term Evidence.” The Journal of Portfolio Management 47, no. 7 (2021): 14–26. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2021.1.257.

Faber, Meb. “Where the Black Swans Hide & the 10 Best Days Myth.” SSRN Scholarly Paper No. 1908469. Rochester, NY, Pre-published August 14, 2011. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1908469.

Han, Yufeng, Yang Liu, Guofu Zhou, and Yingzi Zhu. “Technical Analysis in the Stock Market: A Review.” Pre-published 2021. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3850494.

Han, Yufeng, Ke Yang, and Guofu Zhou. “A New Anomaly: The Cross-Sectional Profitability of Technical Analysis.” The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 48, no. 5 (2013): 1433–61. https://www.jstor.org/stable/43303847.

Han, Yufeng, and Guofu Zhou. “Trend Factor: A New Determinant of Cross-Section Stock Returns.” SSRN Electronic Journal, ahead of print, 2012. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2182667.

Hendrik Bessembinder, and Kalok Chan. “The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in the Asian Stock Markets.” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 3, no. 2 (1995): 257–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/0927-538X(95)00002-3.

Hirsch Holdings Inc. “Stock Trader’s Almanac.” Stock Trader’s Almanac, September 2026. https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/.

Hirsch, Jeffrey A. Stock Trader’s Almanac 2027. Wiley, 2026.

Hurst, Brian, Yao Hua Ooi, and Lasse Heje Pedersen. “A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing.” SSRN Electronic Journal, ahead of print, 2017. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2993026.

Internal Revenue Service. Topic No. 409, Capital Gains and Losses. Internal Revenue Service, Tax Topics, 2026. https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409.

Keim, Donald B. “Size-Related Anomalies and Stock Return Seasonality: Further Empirical Evidence.” Journal of Financial Economics 12, no. 1 (1983): 13–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(83)90025-9.

Lakonishok, Josef, and Seymour Smidt. “Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective.” The Review of Financial Studies 1, no. 4 (1988): 403–25. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/1.4.403.

Lo, Andrew W., Harry Mamaysky, and Jiang Wang. “Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation.” The Journal of Finance 55, no. 4 (2000): 1705–65. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00265.

Martin, Peter G., and Byron B. McCann. The Investor’s Guide to Fidelity Funds. Wiley, 1989.

McConnell, John J., and Wei Xu. “Equity Returns at the Turn of the Month.” Financial Analysts Journal 64, no. 2 (2008): 49–64. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v64.n2.11.

Mebane T. Faber. “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation.” The Journal of Wealth Management 9, no. 4 (2007): 69–79. https://doi.org/10.3905/jwm.2007.674809.

Neely, Christopher J., David E. Rapach, Jun Tu, and Guofu Zhou. “Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators.” Management Science 60, no. 7 (2014): 1772–91. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1838.

Smolyansky, Michael. “End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns.” SSRN Scholarly Paper No. 4552509. Rochester, NY, Pre-published August 30, 2023. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4552509.

Tobias J. Moskowitz, Yao Hua Ooi, and Lasse Heje Pedersen. “Time Series Momentum.” Journal of Financial Economics, Special Issue on Investor Sentiment, vol. 104, no. 2 (2012): 228–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.11.003.

Twain, Mark. The Tragedy of Pudd’nhead Wilson. Project Gutenberg, 1894. https://www.gutenberg.org/files/102/102-h/102-h.htm#link2HCH0013.

Wikipedia contributors. LSV Asset Management — Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia. 2024. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LSV_Asset_Management.

Zhang, Rongju, and Henry Wong. “How Much Information Is Required to Time the Market?” The Journal of Portfolio Management 48, no. 1 (2021): 163–87. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2021.1.299.

Zhu, Yingzi, and Guofu Zhou. “Technical Analysis: An Asset Allocation Perspective on the Use of Moving Averages.” Journal of Financial Economics 92, no. 3 (2009): 519–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2008.07.002.

中证指数有限公司. 中证1000指数编制方案. 编制方案 No. 000852. 中证指数有限公司, 2014. https://www.csindex.com.cn/#/indices/family/detail?indexCode=000852.

中证指数有限公司. 中证红利指数编制方案. 编制方案 No. 000922. 中证指数有限公司, 2008. https://www.csindex.com.cn/#/indices/family/detail?indexCode=000922.

中证指数有限公司. 沪深300指数编制方案. 编制方案 No. 000300. 中证指数有限公司, 2005. https://www.csindex.com.cn/#/indices/family/detail?indexCode=000300.

伯顿·G.马尔基尔. 漫步华尔街(原书第13版). 机械工业出版社, 2024. https://book.cppinfo.cn/Encyclopedias/home/index?id=4717216.

孟岩. “大水与容器.” 孟岩, August 2026. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HIDwasPkQ37msWLrarDB3g.

廖静池, 王大霁, 赵闻恺, 黄宇宸, and 高旗胜. 概率寻方向，思因赢未来——A股宽基、风格、行业日历效应全面盘点（2010年-2025年）. 策略深度报告. 浙商证券股份有限公司, 2025. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_pnBQC4axt_0jE4vE6kgOg.

张夏, 涂婧清, and 田登位. A股的四季效应：原理、风格和行业选择——A股流动性与风格系列（一）. 证券研究报告/策略专题报告. 招商证券股份有限公司, 2023. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7O0kLDjZM4UBRqJh_A_gXg.

杰里米·西格尔. 股市长线法宝(第6版). 中信出版社, 2024. https://book.cppinfo.cn/Encyclopedias/home/index?id=4744833.

查尔斯·D.埃利斯. 赢得输家的游戏:投资者如何长期战胜市场(原书第8版). 机械工业出版社, 2025. https://book.cppinfo.cn/Encyclopedias/home/index?id=4879395.

深圳证券信息有限公司. 创业板指数编制方案. 编制方案 No. 399006. 深圳证券信息有限公司, 2010. https://www.cnindex.com.cn/docs/gz_399006.pdf.

深圳证券信息有限公司. 国证1000成长指数编制方案. 指数编制方案 No. 399370. 深圳证券信息有限公司, 2010. https://www.cnindex.com.cn/module/index-detail.html?act_menu=1&indexCode=399370.

约翰·博格. 共同基金常识(10周年纪念版). Translated by 巴曙松,吴博. 北京联合出版有限责任公司, 2017. https://book.cppinfo.cn/Encyclopedias/home/index?id=3232624.

陈骁, and 郝博韬. 养老保险体系研究（七）：中国的养老保险基金——投资管理现状与前景展望. 证券研究报告（行业深度报告）. 平安证券股份有限公司研究所, 2025.